January 19, 2026 Thoughts of the Week The world is becoming increasingly more volatile and President Trump more aggressive . His first year was all about tariffs. His second year has started with a clear willingness to demonstrate power (and use tariffs...) And although the "James Bond like" kidnapping of Venezuela's dictator was cautiously celebrated by most western leaders, Trump's aggression towards Greenland has raised eyebrows in Europe and beyond. Last but not least, t

January 12, 2026 Thoughts of the Week Maybe we should not have chosen a casino photo for an investments related newsletter. But I will try to explain the rationale. First, some healthy gambling among friends-and-family always takes place during the New Year's holidays, at least where I come from, and hence I did not want to be totally out of fashion. And for sure, some parts of the financial markets have started behaving like casinos, attracting speculators and gamblers for t

December 15th, 2025 Please note that this will be the last weekly newsletter until January 12th. We take the opportunity to wish our readers a warm holiday season and a healthy & prosperous New Year ! Thoughts of the Week It is that time of the year again, when we bring the crystal ball out. In 2025, we had a few non-consensus thoughts that proved correct. In mid-December of last year, we talked about a potential big drop in the dollar and that China/Hong Kong could outpace

December 8th, 2025 Thoughts of the Week Nobody talks about Japan, but we will.  Last week the President of Japan's central bank said that they could start increasing interest rates as inflation has, at last, stabilized at relatively high levels. Now for them, this is a good thing, because Japan has been plagued by deflation (i.e. negative inflation) for more than 30 years. At the same time, the new government also announced plans for increased spending, at a time when both de

December 1st, 2025 Thoughts of the Week November disappointed, despite the long-standing very positive seasonal pattern. But as we had mentioned in our newsletter at the dawn of this month, nothing has worked according to seasonal patterns this year, which had made us put a question mark on a potential November mini-rally, back then. If the patterns return to normal however, December should produce very decent returns. This typically positive finish to the year has given

November 24th, 2025 Thoughts of the Week It has been a remarkable year, primarily because of the polarization in returns among stocks and industries. In the US, everything related to AI, chips and data centers has been flying sky-high, while Consumer Staples (the likes of Procter & Gamble, Coca Cola and Colgate) have been left in the doldrums. In Europe, the shares of most defense companies have doubled and cement makers to Spanish banks have produced more than 50% of retur